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	<title>ICBS Everywhere &#187; arguments</title>
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		<title>On Oversimplification and Certainty</title>
		<link>http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/2012/08/on-oversimplification-and-certaint/</link>
		<comments>http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/2012/08/on-oversimplification-and-certaint/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Aug 2012 05:07:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barbara Drescher]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Critical Thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Epistemology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feminism]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[hubris]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[social justice]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/?p=1541</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Responses to requests, demands, and criticism in the blogosphere in recent months has prompted a great deal of discussion, most of it terribly unproductive. In fact, most of it has been downright silly &#8211; a childish back-and-forth which, to an outsider, might appear to be violent agreement. In other words, camps do not appear to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="pf-content"><p>Responses to requests, demands, and criticism in the blogosphere in recent months has prompted a great deal of discussion, most of it terribly unproductive. In fact, most of it has been downright silly &#8211; a childish back-and-forth which, to an outsider, might appear to be violent <em>agreement</em>. In other words, camps do not appear to disagree, in general, about foundational issues, yet the bloodshed continues. Need I provide examples? I don&#8217;t think so*.</p>
<p>I hate to harp on a point (I really do), but oversimplification and shallow treatment of issues appears to be at the source of so much of the animosity that I think that rational discussion could be had if a short checklist were followed which included keeping one&#8217;s mind open to the possibility the other person is not evil simply because they criticized something or failed to submit to demands.</p>
<p>I am short on time and not prepared to discuss &#8220;<a rel="nofollow href=">Atheism Plus</a>&#8221; in detail at the moment, but the discussion of it provides an excellent example or two that I think provide some insight into how discussions devolve into battles.</p>
<p>First, there is a slippery slope involved which is accelerated by crowd behavior and by unproductive reactions to criticism. We may, for example, start with a civil discussion about whether or not gender disparity in local groups can be attributed to a barrage of unwanted sexual attention women may receive at meet-ups. A number of views will be expressed, some with comments about their own experiences:</p>
<p>Person A: &#8220;I don&#8217;t do that.&#8221;</p>
<p>Person B: &#8220;I&#8217;ve been groped at meet-ups and it made me feel powerless and alone.&#8221;</p>
<p>Person C: &#8220;That&#8217;s never happened to me.&#8221;</p>
<p>Person D: &#8220;I think we should ban people who do that kind of thing.&#8221;</p>
<p>Person E: &#8220;So, I can&#8217;t ask a woman out at a meet-up?&#8221;</p>
<p>Person F: &#8220;Wait, I go to meet-ups to meet men and I like it when they grab me. I can take care of myself and I don&#8217;t want that behavior banned.&#8221;</p>
<p>Person G: &#8220;I&#8217;m not going to attend meet-ups anymore if people think that groping is okay.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8230;and so on.</p>
<p>None of these views should shut down discussion. The refusal to concede that one&#8217;s own view may not be &#8220;right&#8221; is what turns discussions like these into battles of wills. Note that the original talking point was simple and there are small steps away from it as people talk rather than listen or make assumptions about what was said rather than ask for clarification. Those small steps add up. One day, a woman casually asks that men put a little more thought into when and how they proposition women and a few months later dozens of people are painting everyone who doesn&#8217;t support a rather specific call to action as a misogynist or &#8216;gender traitor&#8217; while some of those called misogynists and gender traitors have dismissed the original problem altogether. This helps no one.</p>
<p>Those promoting &#8220;A+&#8221; have painted critics with a broad brush; we are &#8220;haters&#8221; who are &#8220;against social justice&#8221;. A <a href="http://freethoughtblogs.com/greta/2012/08/21/why-atheism-plus-is-good-for-atheism/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">post</a> by Greta Christina on the issue of inclusiveness provides some insight:</p>
<blockquote><p>An atheist movement cannot be inclusive of atheist women… and also be inclusive of people who publicly call women ugly, fat, sluts, whores, cunts, and worse; who persistently harass them; who deliberately invade their privacy and make their personal information public; and/or who routinely threaten them with grisly violence, rape, and death.</p>
<p>An atheist movement cannot be inclusive of atheists of color… and also be inclusive of people who think people of color stay in religion because they’re just not good at critical thinking, who blame crime on dark-skinned immigrants, who think victims of racial profiling deserved it because they looked like thugs, and/or who tell people of color, “You’re pretty smart for a…”.</p></blockquote>
<p>In addition to holding up the reprehensible behavior of a few trolls as representative of the community as a whole, these statements are so full of subtext that they cry out for scrutiny. There are clearly false dichotomies buried in there as many of the proponents of A+ and many of their readers have expressed the desire not simply exclude the asshats who &#8220;publicly call women ugly&#8221; or &#8220;who deliberately invade their privacy&#8221;, but also anyone who dares to question whether such things have <em>actually happened</em> in given situations.</p>
<p>As has been said many times, we should be charitable when someone&#8217;s meaning is not entirely clear &#8211; give them the benefit of the doubt when we have little evidence of malice. This requires empathy. It requires us to resist defensive reactions and reconsider our views when we realize that we have failed in that regard.</p>
<p>Greta also notes that to provide a safe space for people of color, they must exclude &#8220;people who think people of color stay in religion because they’re just not good at critical thinking&#8221;. I found this particularly interesting in light of the fact that the belief that <em>everyone</em> with faith in a deity of some sort is &#8220;not good at critical thinking&#8221; is a widespread view among atheists (and skeptics, unfortunately). PZ Myers, one of the founders/owners of FreeThoughtBlogs said  this of the religious in a debate a few months ago (one I urge you all to watch: http://youtu.be/ZsqqFpWh7m8 ): &#8220;There&#8217;s something wrong with their braaains!&#8221;</p>
<p>It may be that Greta meant to refer to those who claim that people of color are generally poor critical thinkers and this explains lower rates of atheism. However, the math does not add up. Try constructing a syllogism from these statements. The proportion of believers in the population of people of color is higher than the general population. Believers are poor critical thinkers. Therefore&#8230;</p>
<p>So, who is right? Well, neither is right. Or correct.</p>
<p>Out of curiousity, I watched a <a href="http://youtu.be/l-3JkhuOQ7A" target="_blank">recording</a> of a few people discussing &#8220;Atheism+&#8221; [A+]. Much of this particular discussion involved defending the approach of A+ and suggesting that critics are somehow against social justice in general. I won&#8217;t got through the entire discussion; many of the arguments were straw men, which are not relevant. However, many were based on unsupported assertions (assumptions) and that is directly relevant.</p>
<p>One of the participants, Debbie Goddard (of <a href="http://www.centerforinquiry.net/oncampus/" target="_blank">CFI On Campus</a>) attempted to address real criticisms rather than discuss those straw men and from her comments the disagreements became more clear. At one point, Stephanie Zvan criticized skeptics for ignoring evidence, noting that &#8220;We have mountains of evidence that &#8216;treating people equally&#8217; is not treating people equally.&#8221; Debbie clarified this by expressing her belief that &#8220;color-blindness&#8221; is wrong.</p>
<p>That is when I realized that what they are talking about here are legitimate and rational disagreements over how to approach social injustices.</p>
<p><em>Legitimate and rational disagreements. </em>Meaning that neither view is so well-supported that they can claim to know what&#8217;s best.</p>
<p>Yet people attempting to discuss these things rationally have been vilified and views have polarized. And the people who were speaking in this recording were doing so with such certainty that they were &#8220;right&#8221; that they failed to see that legitimate and rational disagreement was even possible.</p>
<p>And this has happened with many on both sides of the issue with most of the &#8216;dust ups&#8217; in the community. I think a lot of the problem lies in treating these topics as simple when, in fact, they are not. As <a href="http://www.centerforinquiry.net/blogs/entry/some_observations_about_atheism_plus/" target="_blank">Ron Lindsay</a> stated in a recent post on A+:</p>
<blockquote><p>Social justice is great. After all, who’s against social justice? It’s when one starts to fill in the details that disagreements arise.</p></blockquote>
<p>And it&#8217;s the details that matter here.</p>
<p>There are some who argue that, because minorities are at a disadvantage due to a history of oppression, they require special protection in order to reach equality. There are others who argue that such protection is both unnecessary and racist/sexist/___ist in and of itself. <em>And there is a full spectrum of positions in the grey area in between these two views. </em></p>
<p>What Stephanie claimed is that science tells us that the first view is &#8220;right&#8221;. Her certainty in that conclusion is clear from the video. Yet, she is wrong &#8211; sort of.</p>
<p>There are three details that we should consider. I am going to ignore one which comes from that grey area because it is extremely complicated, and that is the question of whether equal opportunity or equal outcome should be the goal. In other words, what &#8220;equality&#8221; means [If you claim that the answer to that question is no-brainer, you are making my point]. The other two major issues are the evidence for the claim and the evidence which suggests the best courses of action to correct injustices, which is the whole reason for asking the question in the first place.</p>
<p>We all know that stereotypes exist and that racism, sexism, any-ism, are alive and well in our society. And there is plenty of evidence that implicit biases exist. In fact, they are impossible to eliminate. We favor people whom we view as &#8220;like us&#8221; in many different ways. Depending on one&#8217;s definition of &#8220;ingroup&#8221; in a given context, we favor those who fit it. However, we are capable of making choices and taking actions which render such favor powerless. We are capable of overcoming these biases just as we are capable of overcoming other cognitive biases. Not eliminating, overcoming.</p>
<p>So science tells us that we have implicit biases which require a special effort on our part to overcome. Stephanie is right, no?</p>
<p>Not so fast.</p>
<p>Science may be able to tell us if affirmative action has contributed to the huge reductions in racism and related outcomes which have occurred in recent decades, but it can<em>not</em> tell us if affirmative action is a good idea today simply based on the knowledge that we need to make a conscious effort to overcome biases. Even the first question is difficult to assess confidently, but I suspect it can be done and I suspect that the answer will be, &#8220;Yes. Yes, it has.&#8221;</p>
<p>But this is an extremely complex issue and it is further complicated by the fact that we all have dog in the race. We all care about it because we all identify with one or more of those man made categories we sum up as the variable &#8220;race&#8221;.</p>
<p>My personal views about special protection are like most of my political views (this IS a political issue, after all): very centrist. I believe that we need to <em>pay attention</em> to things like gender parity if we are interested in decreasing it. I am not convinced, however, that quotas are entirely appropriate in all situations. And if you think that science has the answer to whether my views are &#8220;correct&#8221;, I challenge you to prove so.</p>
<p>And here&#8217;s where I say that<em> in my view</em>, both Stephanie and Debbie are <em>wrong</em>. What I won&#8217;t do is reject their views outright and wonder why they can&#8217;t just see the truth that I think is written in &#8220;mountains of evidence&#8221;. I won&#8217;t do that because, although I am confident in my own conclusions, I am open to the possibility that I am wrong about this very complex, emotionally-charged issue.</p>
<p>Why I think they are wrong:</p>
<p>The goal is not to place blame for disparities, but to reduce them. If the major source of disparity is discrimination, then the act of discriminating needs to be reduced. Science <em>does</em> provide us with information which is useful in efforts to reduce interracial and other inter-group tensions. What the evidence suggests is not the multiculturalism approach that Debbie believes is best, but what she rejected: color-blindness (and gender-blindness, etc.). Or perhaps a better term would be color-not-noticing, but that doesn&#8217;t roll of the tongue very well.</p>
<p>We all have multiple identities. I am a woman, a scientist, an educator, a skeptic, an activist, a blogger, etc. There are always people with whom I share some identities and not others. When the context focuses on a specific value or identity, those with whom I share that value or identity are part of my ingroup. Ingroup/outgroup classification changes with context, but some are more flexible than others.</p>
<p>Decades of applied research has failed to demonstrate that interracial tension in schools can be reduced by increasing discussions of cultural differences and celebrating diversity. This should not be surprising given the mountains of research that Stephanie mentioned about ingroup/outgroup mentality. Attention to differences <em>increases</em> that tension.</p>
<p>What reduces the tension? Focus on similarities, seeing people as part of the ingroup and ignoring the differences which are present in a given context. Reducing the amount of &#8220;othering&#8221; we engage in. The best way to do that is to focus on commonalities. For example, the work that Chris Stedman, author of a soon-to-be-release book entitled <a href="http://amzn.com/0807014397">Faitheist: How an Atheist Found Common Ground with the Religious</a>  does has been criticized by PZ Myers and others because it brings people of different religious affiliations (and none) together to work toward common prosocial goals. Just yesterday a group of interfaith activists (as they call themselves) spent the day picking up trash on a beach to make it safer and cleaner.</p>
<p>Am I suggesting that people suppress parts of themselves about which they are proud? Let me make this clear: <strong>Hell, no. </strong></p>
<p>If that is what you&#8217;re taking from this post, you need to look outside of yourself and try to see the bigger picture. What I am saying is that my gender identity should have <strong>zero</strong> bearing on whether I am hired for a job or asked to speak at a conference or viewed as a sexual object in a professional context. Does that mean that I should not be proud to be a woman? Of course not.</p>
<p>Interfaith work does not suggest that people &#8216;check their religion at the door&#8217;, either. The work benefits more than just the likelihood that they will accomplish common goals.  Working together exposes each participant to people with whom they both share ideology and differ in ideology. Focus on the common ideology reduces the tensions caused by differences in other views and that reduction spreads to the differences themselves.</p>
<p>For example, a <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/118931/knowing-someone-gay-lesbian-affects-views-gay-issues.aspx">2009 Gallop Poll</a> result which most will find unsurprising is that people are much, much less likely to oppose same-sex marriage if they know someone who is gay/lesbian. There are certainly problems with drawing causal conclusions from such a study, but the effect is large and the findings are consistent with many lines of research which converge.</p>
<p>As I stated before, this is a complex issue. You may completely disagree with my argument, but to dismiss it altogether would be ludicrous, not to mention closed-minded and, dare I say it?, anti-intellectual.</p>
<p>I prefer to be recognized for my work rather than patronized because I am female. You may not see the issues the way I do, but calling me a misogynist for that disagreement is not only outrageous, it&#8217;s insulting and wrong.</p>
<p>When you speak with such certainty about how right and moral you are in relation to your critics without considering the possibility that you may be missing a nuance or two, you cannot hold any sort of moral or intellectual high ground.</p>
<p>My purpose here is not to argue about the topic of social justice, but to make the point that certainty, particularly about moral questions, is something we all need to be careful about. Too much (more than what is warranted) and it gets in the way of rational discussion. Too much and it divides people when no division is necessary. Too much and it is counterproductive. Too much and it is not confidence; it&#8217;s arrogance.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>NOTE: Before you start commenting that Atheism Plus is about &#8220;allowing these discussions&#8221; because nobody else will, let me remind you that nobody ever said that discussions about evidence were outside the scope of Skepticism (one of the primary reasons put forward for the founding of A+) just because they relate to issues of social justice. In fact, quite the opposite is true and I think that this post is a good example of how science and skepticism can be applied to those areas.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>*For those not following the &#8216;rationalist&#8217; blogosphere, I apologize for my lack of links to the incidents I mentioned here. Frankly, there are too many and it&#8217;s difficult to know where to start or to choose one link which clearly demonstrates what&#8217;s happened. It seems to me that one does not need the background information to understand the example, but I cannot tell for certain.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You Can&#8217;t Judge an Argument by Its Conclusion</title>
		<link>http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/2012/05/you-cant-judge-an-argument-by-its-conclusion/</link>
		<comments>http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/2012/05/you-cant-judge-an-argument-by-its-conclusion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 15:40:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Barbara Drescher]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[B.S.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Critical Thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Epistemology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Skepticism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[arguments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[conclusions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[confirmation bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[irrational]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melody Hensley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rationality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shallow thinking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[validity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://icbseverywhere.com/blog/?p=1334</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I had promised myself that I would spend less time ranting about the problems of the activist community, but I was so disappointed and frustrated during a Twitter exchange with Melody Hensley (of CFI-DC, caveat: she was speaking for herself, not necessarily CFI) the other night that I felt it prudent to bring it up [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="pf-content"><p>I had promised myself that I would spend less time ranting about the problems of the activist community, but I was so disappointed and frustrated during a Twitter exchange with Melody Hensley (of <a href="http://centerforinquiry.net/dc" target="_blank">CFI-DC</a>, caveat: she was speaking for herself, not necessarily CFI) the other night that I felt it prudent to bring it up once again, or at least a part of it.</p>
<p>First, I want to address the tired complaint that traditional skeptics exclude &#8220;the god question&#8221;.</p>
<p>Yup, we do. But before you roll out the silly paragraphs in which you substitute &#8220;God&#8221; and &#8220;religion&#8221; with &#8220;ghosts&#8221; and &#8220;the paranormal&#8221;, understand this: we also don&#8217;t address &#8220;the ghost question&#8221;.</p>
<p>Or &#8220;the psychic question&#8221; or &#8220;the Bigfoot question&#8221; or &#8220;the angel question&#8221;.</p>
<p>Statements such as &#8220;There are no ghosts&#8221; with claims that this is more than a personal conclusion are not good scientific skepticism*. Neither is &#8220;All psychics are fakes&#8221;. Neither is &#8220;there is no God&#8221;.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t tell you if ghosts exist. I can tell you that I don&#8217;t believe in ghosts. I can explain why I don&#8217;t believe in them. I can give you alternative explanations for the noises coming from your attic. I can discuss reasons that you might &#8216;feel&#8217; that ghosts exist. But I cannot prove to you that there are no such thing as ghosts.</p>
<p>I can devise an experiment to show that your dog is not psychic, but I can&#8217;t prove that psychic energy doesn&#8217;t exist.</p>
<p>I can explain the mechanics of sleep paralysis and the nature of memory, but I can&#8217;t say for certain that aliens did not abduct you if you remove the testability of your claim by adding things like &#8220;they reset the clocks&#8221;.</p>
<p>I cannot prove that there is no dragon in your garage if it does not interact with the world in measurable ways. I can only say, &#8220;I am not convinced.&#8221;</p>
<p>What I personally believe about these things is irrelevant. It is poor skepticism, poor science, and poor reasoning to include my beliefs in a discussion of your claims. (NOTE: &#8220;Belief&#8221; is defined in my posts as &#8220;that which one holds to be true&#8221;.)</p>
<p>I will not speak for everyone who has &#8220;harped&#8221; about this issue, but I can tell you that this has always been my bottom line in these arguments, so those who would take it out of context and build straw men like &#8220;she says that religion is off-limits&#8221;, don&#8217;t bother.</p>
<p>What I really want to talk about is about here is why this isn&#8217;t good skepticism. I&#8217;d also like to refute the tired argument that only atheists are good skeptics.</p>
<p>Since there are several versions of this argument and I acknowledge that they carry different meanings, I am also arguing against the following claims:</p>
<ul>
<li>Only atheists are rational.</li>
<li>Theists/Deists may be good skeptics when it comes to other areas, but they are not skeptical about religion.</li>
<li>Agnostics and theists/deists do not &#8216;go far enough&#8217;.</li>
<li>There are no reasons to believe in/is no evidence for the supernatural.</li>
</ul>
<p>The problem with these claims is that they are based almost entirely on a conclusion &#8211; the conclusion that there is no god (atheism). It is human nature to judge the validity of arguments by the believability of the conclusion. <a href="http://math2033.uark.edu/wiki/images/5/50/Penguin_syllogism.jpg"><img class="alignright" title="Penguin Reason" src="http://math2033.uark.edu/wiki/images/5/50/Penguin_syllogism.jpg" alt="http://math2033.uark.edu/wiki/images/5/50/Penguin_syllogism.jpg" width="273" height="308" /></a>For example, consider the following syllogisms and decide whether each is valid or invalid:</p>
<p><em>Some students are tired.</em><br />
<em> Some tired people are irritable.</em><br />
<em> Therefore, some students are irritable.</em></p>
<p><em>All dogs have four legs.</em><br />
<em> Daisy is a dog.</em><br />
<em> Therefore, Daisy has four legs.</em></p>
<p><em>If I study, I will get a good grade on the exam.</em><br />
<em> I got a good grade on the exam.</em><br />
<em> Therefore, I studied.</em></p>
<p>If you are like most of my students, you identified the first and third as valid, but the second as invalid. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. An argument is valid if and only if the conclusion logically follows from the premises. Validity is not truth. This is important, because none of us actually knows with 100% certainty what is and is not true.</p>
<p><strong>When we assume that we know what is true, we fail to evaluate arguments on their own merits. If it we were wrong, we perpetuate and strengthen our misguided beliefs </strong><strong style="font-style: normal; font-weight: bold;">instead of discovering our errors.</strong></p>
<p>To know how strong a conclusion is, we must examine two things: 1) the validity of the argument that produced it and 2) the strength of the premises.</p>
<p>The validity of the argument lies only in its logical progression, so we can evaluate this without going beyond what is presented. However, the strength of the premises is another matter. To evaluate those, we must consider their sources. In science, some are conclusions of other arguments (often previous research) and we must evaluate that research to know how strong the premise is. Others are a matter of observation, which is subjected to interpretation and induction. For example, in the famous syllogism about Socrates mortality, the strength of that conclusion relies on the assumption that the premise &#8220;All men are mortal&#8221; is accurate. Since not all men have died, we don&#8217;t actually know with 100% certainty that all men <em>are</em> mortal. We accept it based on a large number of observations and converging evidence, but certainty is not possible.</p>
<p>In my examples, the second syllogism is logically sound, but most people reject it because they &#8220;know&#8221; that not all dogs have four legs. Perhaps you&#8217;ve seen or heard of a three-legged dog (I met one once named &#8220;Tripod&#8221;) or you have knowledge of how it could occur. This does not make the argument invalid, but it does address #2, making the conclusion unsupported. We cannot determine if it is true from this argument.</p>
<p>The first and third arguments are invalid because the logic is unsound. We may &#8220;know&#8221; that the conclusions are true, but we can&#8217;t know that based on these arguments, so if we want to convince others we need to come up with better evidence/arguments.</p>
<p>The tendency to judge conclusions based on current beliefs is a product of how our brains evolved and developed &#8211; a side-effect of what makes us successful organisms. It is human nature, it is wrong and must be overcome if one is to be consistently rational (This, by the way, is a bit of a pipe dream, but I think it&#8217;s a good goal).</p>
<p>This problem pops up in a host of cognitive tasks and is a manifestation of the most influential of human frailties: the confirmation bias. This makes it extremely resistant to correction, especially in real-world contexts. In my experience, the concept of &#8220;validity&#8221; is difficult for many people to grasp because of this problem.</p>
<p>So, going back a few paragraphs, note that I wrote, &#8220;The problem with these claims is that they are based almost entirely on a conclusion &#8211; the conclusion that there is no god (atheism).&#8221;</p>
<p>Reason is about the validity of arguments, so judging a conclusion as valid or invalid without examining the argument is itself an irrational act. Without the argument, your only yardstick is your own belief about the truth of that conclusion. Although we have reasons for our beliefs, so do the people whose beliefs we&#8217;re evaluating. <strong>Everyone thinks that their beliefs are well-reasoned and accurate.</strong> That&#8217;s why they believe them!</p>
<p>If you find their conclusion unbelievable, then by all means, be skeptical, but to call it &#8220;irrational&#8221; without evaluating the argument is to say that you are 100% certain that <em>there is no rational argument</em>. That is the very definition of arrogance and it is not scientific.</p>
<p><strong>Science does not tell us what is (true).</strong> Science tells us what is <em>likely (to be true)</em> and, in most cases, how likely. It does so by making arguments. Science is shared knowledge, not because it tells us facts, but because we can discuss the evidence and logic processes behind why we should be <em>reasonably certain</em> of many things. Although science is both a process and a set of knowledge (I&#8217;ll call them &#8216;facts&#8217;), the facts in that set are the products of the process. This may include negatives such as &#8220;my dog is not psychic&#8221; and &#8220;vaccines do not cause autism&#8221;, but testing is required to make such conclusions scientific.</p>
<p>Science is not about those facts, though. It&#8217;s about the process of discovery. When scientists make arguments (by publishing papers), they cite previous literature by noting the findings and, in some cases, describing how those findings were produced. They do not list facts; they discuss evidence.</p>
<p>Scientists don&#8217;t judge conclusions. Scientists judge arguments. Scientists look at the whole argument &#8211; the assumptions, evidence, and methodology that make up the premises as well as the logic that holds them together &#8211; and judge if the conclusions logically follow from those premises.</p>
<p>Likewise,<em> scientific skepticism</em> is about testing claims, examining evidence, and providing natural explanations for the evidence. If there is no evidence to examine, there is nothing to discuss.</p>
<p>Because science ignores untestable claims and because some scientists (e.g., Carl Sagan) have discussed the reasonability of belief without evidence, many people oversimplify the issue (as Melody did in this Twitter conversation) by making the statement that belief in God is within the scope of scientific skepticism because &#8220;You don&#8217;t believe something without scientific evidence&#8221;.</p>
<p>This is misguided for several reasons, but the two main reasons are:</p>
<ol>
<li>The assumption that most or all religious belief is completely blind faith is simply wrong. &#8220;Evidence&#8221;, scientific or otherwise, comes in all manner of forms. In a 1998 study conducted by the <a href="http://skeptic.com">Skeptic Society</a>, the most popular answers among believers for why they believe in God involved empirical evidence and/or reasoning (you can find this in Michael Shermer&#8217;s <span style="text-decoration: underline;">How We Believe</span>). These people certainly think that they have good reasons to believe. How people interpret evidence varies a great deal. Most real-world questions are very complex and what seems an obvious conclusion to one person may seem ridiculous to another. Skepticism is about how we interpret evidence, how we reason, and how we consider alternative explanations, not about the conclusions we eventually draw.A good example of interpreting evidence is the study that prompted me to send a tweet to Melody in the first place. She&#8217;d first shared a link, then <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/MelodyHensley/status/197106929162661888">tweeted it again</a>, this time directly to Daniel Loxton, editor of <a href="http://www.skeptic.com/junior_skeptic/">Junior Skeptic</a>, with the comment &#8220;More good news about atheists that you might find hard to believe:&#8221; Only Melody knows what she meant by the comment, but when I read the study I was disappointed to find that it is not &#8220;good news about atheists&#8221; at all. I will include details in a post to follow shortly, but the gist is that article&#8217;s spin is a very loose interpretation of the findings that fails to mention some sobering facts. Its overgeneralizations and assumptions are criminal. For example, the study reported doesn&#8217;t involve atheists. Researchers measured religiosity, then divided participants in half (&#8220;more religious&#8221; and &#8220;less religious&#8221;), a common practice in social psychology. Sure, there were atheists among the &#8220;less religious&#8221;, but we don&#8217;t draw conclusions about a part of a sample. Furthermore, taking the three studies as a whole, the &#8216;more religious&#8217; were more compassionate and more prosocial than the &#8216;less religious&#8217; half. In essence, anyone wanting to spin the findings another way could easily do so by noting that the less religious half <em>only</em>acted prosocially when moved to do so by compassion, whereas the more religious were consistently prosocial. This is not a finding that atheists are better people and, quite frankly, I am sick of people trying to prove such nonsense. Promoting the fact that one can be good without God does not require atheists to be morally superior and, as this study shows, it is a good thing that it doesn&#8217;t.Again, we all think that our beliefs are well-reasoned, but what&#8217;s more interesting is that people tend to assume that those who disagree do so because either they &#8220;need to&#8221; (In that same Skeptic Society survey, the most popular reasons believers gave for <em>other people&#8217;s beliefs in God</em> involved the stereotype of comfort and meaning to life.) or they are not as rational.</li>
<li>Even if there was literally zero evidence, the &#8220;null hypothesis&#8221; argument is an oversimplification of a concept borrowed from statistical rules and applied to the assumption that science makes that every hypothesis is testable. Science makes this assumption, but it also acknowledges that the assumption could be wrong by excluding the possibility of 100% certainty and by limiting its scope to testable hypotheses. You cannot invoke science as an answer to claims it cannot test, nor can you claim that someone&#8217;s conclusion is wrong because science cannot test it; that&#8217;s circular reasoning unless you&#8217;re saying that science is the only way to know something. By that logic, people cannot be scientific thinkers and also have morals**. Science (shared knowledge) may ignore the supernatural, but people (personal knowledge) do not and cannot use scientific processes to examine every question and still manage to function in the world, so if you want to attack person knowledge as wrong, you&#8217;ll have to do better than &#8220;it&#8217;s not scientific&#8221;.</li>
</ol>
<p>So, what about the other versions of this claim?</p>
<p>Are atheists more rational than believers? Probably on average, considering the other variables which are correlated with atheism. However, given how poorly all human beings are at reasoning, that isn&#8217;t saying much.</p>
<p>Is atheism rational? I can&#8217;t answer that. Atheism is a conclusion. Whether it&#8217;s a rational conclusion depends on why the individual drew that conclusion.</p>
<p>Is religion rational? Again, I can&#8217;t answer that<em> and neither can you</em>. It&#8217;s a conclusion. Whether it&#8217;s a rational conclusion depends on the reasoning of the individual and the evidence they considered.</p>
<p>From what I know about how human beings process information, I can see a great many valid arguments for the existence of God that would be perfectly rational. They&#8217;d have to have some extraordinarily well-supported premises in order to convince me, but lacking support for those premises won&#8217;t make them irrational. Reasoning well does not require convincing others.</p>
<p>As I&#8217;ve said twice now, everyone thinks that their conclusions are the &#8216;right&#8217; conclusions. So what makes your conclusion (that there is no God) better than someone else&#8217;s?</p>
<p>If your answer is &#8220;mine is well-reasoned&#8221;, that&#8217;s not a comparison. See two sentences back.</p>
<p>To know that you are &#8220;right&#8221; and they are &#8220;wrong&#8221;, you actually have to examine their argument/evidence. If you haven&#8217;t examined their argument, then who are you to tell someone that they are irrational? Who are you to tell them that they have no evidence when you haven&#8217;t even bothered to ask them what their evidence is? This is exactly what you&#8217;re doing when you claim that any belief in a god is &#8220;irrational&#8221; or make a blanket statement about the intelligence or cognitive abilities of those with religious beliefs. It&#8217;s elitist, arrogant, bigoted wishful thinking.</p>
<p>You cannot judge an argument by its conclusion, no matter how unbelievable the conclusion seems to you.</p>
<p>Finally, the following is a list of <strong>things that I have NOT said</strong>. In fact, I do not believe that any of the people accused most of making these statements actually has:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>&#8220;Religion is off-limits in skepticism.&#8221; </strong>There are plenty of testable claims related to religion, but test the claims and discuss the evidence rather than attacking belief in them.</li>
<li><strong>&#8220;Stop talking about &#8216;the god question&#8217;.&#8221;</strong>I have no problems with debates about the existence of God. What I have a problem with is criticizing <em>conclusions</em> as rational or irrational without examining the argument that produced them and calling such criticisms &#8220;skepticism&#8221;.</li>
<li><strong>&#8220;Stop promoting secularism.&#8221; </strong>I am a strong advocate of secularism, but promoting atheism is, in my opinion, no different from promoting any other set of conclusions. Freedom from religion requires freedom <em>of</em> religion. Removing religion from government does not mean taking it away from its citizens.</li>
<li><strong>&#8220;Atheism is not the only valid conclusion of properly-applied skepticism.&#8221; </strong>I did not say that it was, either. Hopefully my discussion explains why that question is not relevant.</li>
</ul>
<p>I had planned to ignore Melody&#8217;s accusations that my criticisms are &#8216;mean-spirited&#8217;, but I cannot do that, either. It certainly is mean-spirited to attack people, but that is not what I have done. You won&#8217;t find a personal comment about Melody here. If it is mean-spirited to address (or even attack) what people say and do, especially when one finds what they promote to be harmful, then our whole business is &#8216;mean-spirited&#8217;.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>*Given that all of the major organizations in skepticism have adopted scientific skepticism, this is what I&#8217;m discussing. If you would like to argue that activism should go beyond scientific skepticism, please do so elsewhere. For that matter, this post is not even about limiting scope for practical and strategic purposes, which is an entirely different cup of tea.</p>
<p>**Yes, I am aware that Sam Harris claims that science can tell us what is moral, but so far his arguments fall far short.</p>
<p>NOTE TO WOULD-BE COMMENTERS: Please do not comment if you have not actually read (not skimmed, READ) the post. Also, before you write a comment about how Dawkins and others (i.e., persons whose credentials you think I should not question) argue that science refutes the existence of God or should include &#8220;the god question&#8221;, I recommend a thorough review those arguments (that means more than reading a couple of blog posts by bystanders or comment threads). Their treatment of the subject is much more considered than the oversimplification I&#8217;m addressing here and their arguments are not as shallow. Finally, if your plan is to quote from Sagan&#8217;s <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Demon-Haunted World</span>, you might want to read the whole book first.</p>
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